The Tekenkamer van de Industrie (ISPT), Deltalinqs, and Quo Mare have published a scenario study on the transition from crude oil to renewable feedstocks. Commissioned by the province of South Holland and the City of Rotterdam, the study explores how different future scenarios guide the transition in the refinery sector and chemical industry in the Harbor Industrial Cluster (HIC) Rotterdam, in line with the net-zero and circularity targets for 2050.

The Challenge: transitioning within limited space

The HIC is a mayor logistical and industrial hub, but the transition to renewable feedstocks presents a significant spatial challenge. The processing of renewable feedstock, such as vegetable oils, (plastic) waste, or biomass, requires more steps and thus more space than fossil-based processes. This study explores the spatial requirements for converting these processes and examines the implications of pursuing sustainability efforts within the existing, limited space.

Impact of spatial constraints

For the transition from fossil to renewable feedstocks in the refinery and cracking industries, an estimated 1.4 times the current space will be needed. Although an initial analysis shows that fuel demand is decreasing – partly due to the rise of electric mobility – and this is freeing up more space, the challenge remains significant.

The study also highlights a dilemma when forcing the transition to take place within the existing space. While technically feasible, this leads to higher costs, delays, and reduced strategic autonomy due to a decline in domestic production. As existing sites have to be dismantled before new processes can be started, this transition would result in temporary production losses and increased dependence on imported end products.

Exploring uncertainty: three future scenarios

In addition to spatial constraints, the study examined how geopolitical and economic uncertainties affect the transition. Based on three scenarios, possible future developments are outlined, focusing on the EU’s mandate and societal fears as drivers of change. These scenarios reflect shifts driven by nationalist conservatism, European climate activism, and European strategic autonomy.

In all scenarios, oil product demand continues to decline, but the extent to which the Netherlands meets its climate targets, maintains autonomy, and sustains economic resilience varies. Additionally, supply chains around vegetable oils (HVO) and syngas emerge in every scenario.

Recommendations for policymakers and industry

It is clear that supportive circularity policies are essential for a successful transition. Since this transformation requires time and a long-term vision, early action is crucial to set direction and provide clarity.

The report offers concrete guidance for policymakers and industry leaders to facilitate the transition of the HIC, considering both opportunities and challenges outlined in the scenarios. Collaboration, smart investments, and a clear long-term strategy are necessary to secure a sustainable and circular future. Whatever choice we make, the time to act is now.

Interested in the report?

Download your copy: https://ispt.eu/publications/a-scenario-study-of-transition-in-the-rotterdam-harbor-industrial-cluster-hic/

Or download the summary: https://ispt.eu/publications/public-summary-a-scenario-study-of-transition-in-the-rotterdam-harbor-industrial-cluster/

Questions?

For more information about this scenario study: Andreas ten Cate, andreas.tencate@ispt.eu.
For information about next steps in response to the report: Liza van der Aa, ls.vanderaa@rotterdam.nl